The decision of U.S. President Donald Trump to pull out of the Paris Agreement has sent chills across the globe. Trump left the Paris Agreement on the grounds that it would be overly costly and very unfair to the U.S. economy, killing hundreds of thousands of jobs and harming industries he suggested were already stricken by the twin-forces of globalization and technological change. Analysts are largely unanimous in throwing doubt over the reasons for a withdrawal, frustrated by the flimsy rationalizations many have come to expect from the current administration.

So, does the U.S. pledge justify Donald Trump’s retreat from the Paris Agreement? According to new research published today by climate risk analytics firm CARBON DELTA, Trump is partly correct… but also deeply wrong.

Dr. Oliver Marchand, CEO and Co-founder of CARBON DELTA, said, “According to CARBON DELTA’s climate risk model, President Trump has a point that the U.S. will incur higher near-term per capita costs to implement its reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement than either the European Union, India or China. However, Trump’s cost estimation is only relevant up until the year 2030; not long afterwards a very different story emerges from our analysis.

David Lunsford, Head of Development and Co-founder of CARBON DELTA, said, “What transpires from CARBON DELTA’s analysis is that different emission reduction costs converge after 2030, as countries start to implement the long-term 2°C target, also agreed in Paris. The long-term target requires China and India to significantly increase their efforts post-2030, facing per capita emission reduction costs significantly larger than that of the United States as well as the European Union in 2050.”

Dr. Marchand added, “Since the U.S. is the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, it only makes sense for the U.S. to take the lead role in tackling climate change. If no country is willing to take the lead, bearing slightly higher short-term costs than others, then country leaders will surely become trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma. Unfortunately, this scenario could lead to the worst outcome for our planet and in most countries, as an estimated USD 2.5 trillion in value could be lost this century due to climate change.”1

Please see CARBON DELTA’s full report here, for more details on the research and findings.

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For more information and to arrange interviews, please contact:

David Lunsford, Co-founder and Head of Development, CARBON DELTA
E-mail: d.lunsford@carbon-delta.com
Phone: +41 78 934 98 86

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CARBON DELTA AG is a climate risk analytics firm that identifies and analyzes climate change resilience. We specialize in uncovering the costs associated with climate change.  This allows our clients to protect assets, optimize performance and reach sustainability goals.

 

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1nature.com